Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like.
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience
1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring
2:50 - The bear case
3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger
5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil?
6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction
10:20 - Complex Fed outlook
12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut?
13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem
15:30 - AI trade rotation
18:10 - Bullish small caps
20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs
24:50 - Recession odds
27:35 - Does history still apply to this market?
28:50 - Follow Phil Neuhart
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